How the calibration retrospectives will work
A preview of the calibration-retrospective format: which predictions resolve fast, which resolve slow, and how we’ll publish drift even when the news is bad.
Every IC memo we ship records its predictions — IRR, MOIC, exit multiple, revenue growth band, margin trajectory — alongside a resolution horizon. When the horizon arrives, an independent grader pulls realized data and compares. That comparison is what we publish.
Some predictions resolve fast. A revenue-growth-band call resolves at the next quarterly disclosure. A margin-expansion call resolves a quarter or two later. A financing-round call typically resolves within four to six quarters. These will appear in retrospectives within months of the memo shipping.
Some predictions resolve slowly. IRR resolves only at exit. MOIC resolves only at distribution. For these, we’ll publish interim resolution signals where available — TVPI estimates from secondary marks, public-comp tracking, downside-band updates — and we’ll be explicit about the difference between an interim signal and a terminal grade.
The retrospectives publish whether or not the news is good for us. A track record that only surfaces wins is not a track record. The point of publishing is to compound credibility through the willingness to be wrong in public — the inverse of the typical research vendor’s posture, and the most defensible differentiation we have.
First retrospective lands when the first cohort of memo predictions has resolution data worth talking about. Watch this space.